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Fittingly, the proceedings are ending with an investigation of a bizarre Trump conspiracy theory.

Cyber Ninjas — the company running the GOP’s so-called “audit” of the 2020 election results in Maricopa County, Arizona — is expected to finally release a report summarizing its findings sometime in the next few weeks. But if past is precedent, the document will likely leave people in a fog of confusion.

That’s because the “audit,” which began in April at the behest of the state’s GOP-controlled Senate and is being paid for by a variety of far-right, pro-Trump sources, was never intended to be a good-faith investigation of election practices. On the contrary, it’s always been about bolstering Donald Trump’s lies about the election with false and misleading claims, then using them as a pretext to impose new voting restrictions aimed at giving Republicans an edge in future elections, including a possible Trump 2024 presidential run.

Inevitably, that means Cyber Ninjas will make claims just plausible enough to get credulous coverage from pro-Trump media, even if the claims can’t withstand scrutiny from impartial fact-checkers. Those claims can then be amplified by elected Republicans who won’t let facts get in the way of their narrative. Consider the dynamic at work in Tucker Carlson’s recent attempts to blame the FBI for the January 6 insurrection — a claim that was quickly debunked but was nonetheless touted by members of Congress like Marjorie Taylor Green and Matt Gaetz.

Comments made last month by Doug Logan, CEO of Cyber Ninjas, gave up the game. During a briefing that took place after most “audit” operations were completed, Logan, who is running the Maricopa County operation even though last winter he posted conspiracy theories about the election being stolen from Trump, claimed, “We have 74,243 mail-in ballots where there is no clear record of them being sent.” That’s a big-if-true allegation that would constitute significant evidence of malfeasance of the sort Trump claimed enabled Joe Biden to beat him in Arizona and other states.

But within days of Logan making those comments, CNN published a lengthy fact-check with a straightforward explanation for the 74,000-plus ballots Logan mentioned. It turns out Logan either didn’t understand or was intentionally trying to mislead people about the fact that the “submitted-ballots list” he cited included ballots cast via in-person early voting as well as by mail. In short, when you understand what the number is actually supposed to represent, it’s not the case that there was a significant number of unexplainable votes.

On Twitter, Arizona elections analyst Garrett Archer broke down what Logan missed and described the CEO’s conspiracy-mongering about the ballots as either “grossly negligent” or “deliberately misleading.” But as the old saying goes, a lie travels halfway around the world while the truth is lacing up its boots.

As CNN detailed, even though the claim that tens of thousands of mail-in ballots appeared out of nowhere is false, prominent Republicans ranging from Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) to Trump himself made hay out of it, with Trump claiming it’s evidence of “magically appearing ballots.”

And that wasn’t even the only false claim Logan made during that briefing. He also lied about Maricopa County’s signature verification processes. But for Logan and company, the truth or falsity of claims is unimportant compared to their usefulness in advancing a narrative about Democratic cheating.

The partisan “audit” is actually a transparent fishing expedition

As my colleague Ian Millhiser detailed in May, Trump supporters haven’t been shy about framing the proceedings in Arizona as the first step in discrediting the 2020 election as part of a half-baked effort to reinstate Trump and other Republicans who lost in 2020.

Pro-Trump outlets like One America News Network (OAN) and Newsmax feature breathless coverage of how, in Arizona GOP chair Kelli Ward’s words, this audit will be “the first domino that will fall and then other states will look into irregularities, abnormalities, mistakes and potentially outright fraud that happened.” Trump himself touts the audit, claiming that Democrats are trying to stop it because “it won’t be good for the Dems.”

The real purpose of the audit, in other words, appears to be feeding Trump’s big lie — the false idea that the 2020 election results are fraudulent.

Let’s take a moment to consider what we already know about the 2020 presidential election in Arizona, which Biden won by 10,457 votes over Trump, and in Maricopa County, the most populous county in the state, which Biden won by just over 45,000 votes.

The Maricopa County result has already been audited four times, with each of them confirming Biden’s margin there. Republicans ranging from Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey to the four on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors (only one Democrat sits on it) to federal officials from Trump’s own administration have affirmed that no funny business took place. A study published by the Associated Press last month found that “Arizona county election officials have identified fewer than 200 cases of potential voter fraud out of more than 3 million ballots cast in last year’s presidential election, further discrediting former President Donald Trump’s claims of a stolen election as his allies continue a disputed ballot review in the state’s most populous county.”

Simply put, not only is there no evidence of widespread election fraud, everything we know points overwhelmingly to the conclusion that Biden’s victory was the result of a free and fair process.

Nonetheless, the Maricopa County “audit” includes a full hand recount of ballots. Cyber Ninjas has been criticized for its sloppy recount procedures — at one point, counters were spotted marking ballots with blue pens even though that sort of ink can affect how they’re read by machines — and the results haven’t been released yet. But there are indications Cyber Ninjas is spending just as much time trying to chase down wild conspiracies as it is taking yet another look at ballot tabulations that have already been confirmed time and time again.

For instance, Cyber Ninjas used UV lights to examine ballots for reasons that remain unclear but may have something to do with their efforts to substantiate a conspiracy theory that bamboo fibers in ballots could serve as proof some were smuggled from Asia.

John Brakey, an official helping oversee the audit of the 2020 Arizona election, says auditors are looking for bamboo fibers because of a baseless accusation that 40K ballots from Asia were smuggled here. #AzAuditPool pic.twitter.com/57UOBYIehg

— Dennis Welch (@dennis_welch) May 5, 2021

Then Republicans in the Arizona state senate subpoenaed the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors and Dominion Voting Systems, demanding they turn over routers used in the election. (They refused.) This interest in routers appears to be connected to a conspiracy theory pushed by My Pillow CEO Mike Lindell that Trump alluded to during a speech in Arizona on July 24.

Trump speaking of “routers” here is a reference to a MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell conspiracy theory which alleges the “routers” of Dominion voting machines were connected to the Internet on election night and thus now need to be examined. https://t.co/rOKKxuUHsK

— Zachary Petrizzo (@ZTPetrizzo) July 25, 2021

In a statement explaining why the board won’t comply with the subpoenas, Jack Sellers, the Republican chairman of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, said it’s already been established that voting machines weren’t tampered with.

“For months, the Senate’s audit team has had access to the items they need to confirm Maricopa County’s tabulators were not connected to the internet and thus were not hacked during the November General Election,” Sellers said. “The certified auditors hired by the County needed just two weeks with the machines and logs that we turned over to the Senate to make such a determination. They have what they need.”

What’s happening in Arizona is best understood as a disinformation campaign

As clownish and rife with conflicts of interest as it has been — one of the “auditors” was a former Republican state representative who lost his seat in 2020 — the proceedings in Arizona illustrate how Republicans are sowing doubt about America’s elections to advance their political interests.

As Jane Mayer explained for the New Yorker, the “audit” can’t be understood on its own — it’s part of a national effort “fed by sophisticated, well- funded national organizations whose boards of directors include some of the country’s wealthiest and highest-profile conservatives”:

One of the movement’s leaders is the Heritage Foundation, the prominent conservative think tank in Washington, D.C. It has been working with the American Legislative Exchange Council (alec)—a corporate-funded nonprofit that generates model laws for state legislators—on ways to impose new voting restrictions. Among those deep in the fight is Leonard Leo, a chairman of the Federalist Society, the legal organization known for its decades-long campaign to fill the courts with conservative judges. In February, 2020, the Judicial Education Project, a group tied to Leo, quietly rebranded itself as the Honest Elections Project, which subsequently filed briefs at the Supreme Court, and in numerous states, opposing mail-in ballots and other reforms that have made it easier for people to vote.

Republican lawmakers in Pennsylvania — another state Biden won — recently expressed interest in a similarly partisan, privately funded “audit” of the 2020 results. Republicans in Texas and Georgia have gone a step further and adopted new legislation aimed at curtailing mail voting and enabling Republicans to take control of elections boards in blue cities, respectively. Arizona Republicans, meanwhile, didn’t wait for the “audit” to conclude to pass a new law restricting mail voting.

These measures are potential solutions to the problem of losing elections, not to the problem of fraud. And since fraud is so exceedingly rare not only in Arizona but nationally — the Washington Post reported in May that there was one case of fraud prosecuted for every 10 million votes last year — Republicans invested in convincing people it’s actually a real problem are increasingly resorting to conspiracy theories about bamboo fibers and hacked routers.

So when the Arizona “audit” report finally drops, know in advance it’ll almost certainly contain flimsy claims of fraud and nods to wild conspiracy theories. Fact-checkers will just as surely get busy debunking it, but in the increasingly shameless environment of Trump’s Republican Party, their findings will either be ignored or summarily dismissed as the product of media outlets that were in on the plot.

All eyes are on Louisiana, which leads the country in new Covid-19 cases.

Normalcy appears to be out of the country’s grasp with the recent uptick in Covid-19 cases fueled by the Delta variant, a highly contagious strain of Covid-19. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Delta variant caused 80 to 87 percent of all US Covid-19 cases in the last two weeks of July. This has impacted states with low vaccination numbers the most.

Louisiana, where just 37.3 percent of residents are fully vaccinated, is the fifth-least vaccinated state but is currently leading the country in an eruption of new cases after infection rates began to climb in early July.

Daily records continue to go up and the state reported over 6,000 new cases on Friday. According to a recent update from Baton Rouge General Hospital obtained by WAFB’s Steve Caparotta, 47 percent of the patients infected with Covid-19 in the hospital’s care are in the ICU and only 15 of these patients had been vaccinated. The hospital stated that workers this weekend are “in the middle of their toughest fight against this virus.”

Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards on Monday reinstated the indoor masking mandate in response to the worsening crisis. “It has become extremely clear that our current recommendations on their own are not strong enough to deal with Louisiana’s fourth surge of Covid,” Edwards told reporters after announcing the mandate.

During a Friday press conference, Edwards made a grim assessment: “Things are if anything, worse today than they were on Monday. Unfortunately, the eyes of the nation are on Louisiana right now.”

Though less than a week old, the mask mandate has already faced backlash, notably at a school board meeting in St. Tammany parish on Thursday. One parent falsely claimed their child would be hindered from learning due to masks cutting off oxygen to the brain. The conspiracy theory was debunked last year by Reuters and other outlets.

With the school year rapidly approaching, the safety of children in Louisiana is a major concern. There is no approved vaccine for children under age 12, and only 15 percent of people ages 12 to 17 are vaccinated in Louisiana, which leaves young people vulnerable. According to Dr. Trey Dunbar, the President of Our Lady of the Lake Children’s Hospital in Baton Rouge, more than 50 percent of the children infected with Covid-19 are under intensive care.

Before the state-wide mask mandate was put in place, the Louisiana Board of Elementary and Secondary Education had chosen to leave masking decisions up to individual schools and only the school district of New Orleans required indoor mask-wearing. The state-wide mandate means that more children will be safe, but it is up to schools to enforce it.

Apart from the mask mandate, schools have the freedom to construct their own set of rules and safety precautions which leads to a disparity in the way Covid-19 is managed in the education sector. According to the guidebook for the Jefferson Parish school districts, schools are largely enforcing in-person K-12 learning except for high school students who want to benefit from the flexibility and extra time that virtual school allows.

This is great for high school students who want to stay home but, from a safety perspective, the decision is confusing. While high school students are eligible to get vaccinated and would therefore be safer in an in-person classroom setting, children in grade school are still vulnerable. The guidebook also states: “Schools should plan for and expect that some students/staff will contract COVID-19 during the school year given the levels of COVID-19 in our communities.” This is concerning from a public health perspective, as preventative measures, such as more access to virtual learning, could reduce the risk of exposure that the board insinuates is all but inevitable with in-class teaching.

Making masks mandatory again is a productive step, but because the Delta variant is highly transmittable, it is not enough. Increasing the number of vaccinated people in the state is the best way forward, but in a state where conspiracy theory holds more value than public health policy for some, this is easier said than done. Misinformation about what is in the vaccine has caused some people to refuse the jab. In Shreveport, a recent City Council meeting grew heated when a woman began protesting against the vaccine, claiming that unvaccinated Americans would be unfairly monitored and that vaccinated people could be used in experiments.

These are both false claims but the damage of this type of rhetoric may contribute to low vaccination rates. According to a study by Donelson Forsyth, a professor at the University of Richmond, resistance to vaccination and mask mandates is concentrated in certain geographical areas because of something called “groupthink.” Decisions made by a group and followed en masse prevent individuals from logically analyzing information and considering other alternatives, which may explain why certain states have remained Covid-19 hotspots.

It’s important to look at the bigger picture of Louisiana’s wave of Covid-19 cases as well. Researchers at Georgetown University identified the largest clusters of unvaccinated people in the United States and found that most of these areas were experiencing rising cases and examples of the virus mutating, which poses a risk to the greater population. Near the top of this list: Shreveport, Louisiana. “Those vulnerable clusters put all of the United States — and to some extent, the world — at risk for going back to 2020, since high-transmission areas can become breeding grounds for Covid-19 variants that could go on to evade Covid-19 vaccines,” wrote CNN’s Elizabeth Cohen and John Bonifield.

While parts of Louisiana pose a risk to the rest of the country, people in-state are also at risk from tourists arriving for vacations. There are currently no travel restrictions in Louisiana and Americans from all over the country’s various Covid-19 hotspots are able to enter the state at will. This is especially concerning because of Louisiana’s proximity to states like Texas and Mississippi. Amarillo, Texas has one of the largest unvaccinated clusters in the country while Mississippi’s partial vaccination rate is 38.64 percent, the lowest in the country.

Another new concern, while not as currently widespread, is the Lambda variant that has recently infected people in Louisiana. The first cases of the Lambda variant were detected in Houston, so health care officials believe that the virus variant spread across the Texas-Louisiana border.

Despite the fact that the CDC warned against nonessential travel for people who are not fully vaccinated, and despite the ever-multiplying virus variants, tourism in Louisiana is in full swing. The tourism industry typically provides more than 230,000 jobs for Louisianians and produces over $1 billion in state tax revenue. Before the surge in cases due to the Delta variant, the tourism industry had been approaching pre-pandemic proportions, something that Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser does not want to let go of. “We’ll be back to those regular [tourism] rates sooner than we thought if we can get through this last surge without a major hit to the tourism industry,” Nungesser told the Louisiana Radio Network at the end of July.

Nungesser is just one among a group of Louisiana politicians who have contracted Covid-19 since the start of the pandemic, including Rep. Clay Higgins, who last month contracted Covid-19 for a second time.

Congressman-elect Luke Letlow, who held numerous maskless campaign events ahead of his election, ultimately died from complications with Covid-19 weeks before taking office in December of last year. He was the first congressman to die from the virus. His widow, Julie Letlow was elected to her husband’s seat in a special election in March; she gave an interview with CBS News this week urging her constituents to get vaccinated.

“My prayer is that not one more person has to lose their life to this virus. It is a horrific way to leave this world.” Letlow said. “We have the answer, let’s use it.”

Public health officials would agree with Julie Letlow. The most effective way to get through this surge is to increase vaccination rates. There has been an effort to encourage people to do this. In fact, the federal government has allocated $2.3 million in lottery money as an incentive. Louisianians have already started winning payouts, while the grand prize of $1 million is yet to be awarded.

This effort has paid off, as Louisiana has seen an uptick of three percent in vaccination rates since June. But as major cities in the state prepare for the plethora of upcoming fall festivals — including JazzFest in New Orleans and Festivals Acadiens in Lafayette — amid rising Covid-19 cases, there is a looming sense of deja vu. As the pandemic began to spread in the US in March 2020, Mardi Gras was in full swing and the high concentration of people without enforced safety precautions led to a death rate that was at one point the highest in the world. Like the rest of the country, Louisiana is trying to balance public health guidance with a desire for normal life, so the outcome of its current surge in cases is still unclear.

That was enough to turn her into a dissident — because in Belarus, run by the authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko for 27 years, even a tiny act of resistance can be a challenge to the state.

Her coaches informed her that she’d been ordered by government officials to return back home immediately. When she balked, they warned her, “If you stay here against [their] will, understand that it will lead to nothing good,” and, “that’s how suicide cases end up, unfortunately.”

At the airport, Tsimanouskaya refused to get on the plane and instead used a translation app on her phone to tell a Japanese police officer she needed help, fearing she would be sent to jail if she returned to Belarus. Tsimanouskaya eventually took refuge in the Polish embassy, and this week, she flew to Poland, which granted her and her husband humanitarian protections.

The saga was a startling reminder of how far Lukashenko’s repression now reaches.

“Because Lukashenko feels threatened from so many angles, from so many sides, he sees treason in every criticism,” said Hanna Liubakova, a Belarusian journalist and nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank.

Lukashenko is conducting a sweeping human rights crackdown after massive protests last year challenged his decades-long hold on power. The regime is targeting journalists, activists, dissidents, even other athletes. Ahead of the anniversary of the protests, he is acting so “there would be basically no structures left among those that dared to criticize him or report properly,” said Maryia Sadouskaya-Komlach, a Belarusian journalist and team lead for Europe and Central Asia at Free Press Unlimited.

Experts and journalists say the escalating crackdown is unprecedented, even for the strongman. That threat has prompted some Belarusians to flee elsewhere to escape the clampdown. And in some instances, Lukashenko has responded by extending the government’s crackdown across its borders.

“Nobody who’s active — an activist politician, journalist, blogger — can feel safe,” Liubakova said. “Not inside the country nor outside the country.”

Lukashenko is a longtime dictator. His latest purge is still unprecedented.

Lukashenko is Europe’s longest-serving leader, in power since 1994 after winning a democratic election in the post-Soviet state. Throughout his time in power, he’s rigged elections and stifled dissent to maintain control.

This was largely his plan last August, during the country’s most recent presidential election. But it was derailed by a political novice named Svetlana Tikhanovskaya.

Tikhanovskaya’s husband is an activist who wanted to challenge Lukashenko in the presidential race; when he was disqualified and jailed by the regime, Tikhanovskaya, who had no political experience whatsoever, took his place as a candidate. To the surprise of many, she rallied millions of Belarusians in opposition to Lukashenko.

She didn’t win, because that’s not a thing that happens under Lukashenko. But she managed to harness the discontent around Lukashenko’s leadership, fueled by anger about the economy and the coronavirus pandemic. That led to massive and historic protests against the regime.

Lukashenko doubled down, as authoritarians tend to do, with even more repression and brutality. “This has been an autocratic, repressive country for many, many years,” Rachel Denber, deputy director of the Europe and Central Asia division at Human Rights Watch, said. “But what’s happened in the past year is just off the charts. It’s not more of the same — it’s so widespread and broad-scale.”

Lukashenko has referred to it as a “mopping-up operation,” with opposition figures, civil society groups, dissidents, and journalists all swept up in an unrelenting dragnet. “There are repressions going on hourly, hourly, repeatedly, full scale,” Tatyana Margolin, regional director for the Eurasia program with Open Society Foundations, said. “And it’s because these are the final, desperate gasps of a despot who knows the end is near.”

The regime has recently targeted civil society organizations, shutting down more than 50 groups. In July, Belarusian authorities raided the headquarters of the Viasna Human Rights Center, one of the country’s top independent human rights organizations. The organization has been documenting cases of political repression and torture, especially since August 2020. They detained seven people, including Viasna’s leaders, and accused them of tax evasion and “organizing and financing group actions that grossly violate public order.”

Natallia Satsunkevich, who works for Viasna (which means “spring” in Belarusian), fled the country in January; some of her colleagues have also fled in recent months. “It was very dangerous, and I wanted to continue my work, and that was the only possibility,” she told me.

Also in July, police conducted about 70 raids on media outlets and journalists’ homes, which led to 15 arrests, according to a report from Reporters Without Borders. Since last year, journalists have been subject to about 500 arrests or detentions in the country.

The most egregious case happened in May, when Belarusian fighter jets diverted a Ryanair plane that was flying over Belarus en route to Lithuania from Greece and forced it to land in Minsk. Officials claimed (with laughably flimsy evidence) they had received a credible bomb threat against the plane. It was merely a pretext to arrest a prominent Belarusian opposition journalist, Roman Protasevich, and his girlfriend, who were aboard the flight (along with 170 other passengers).

The diversion of the Ryanair plane to detain Protasevich violated international norms and prompted global condemnation and punishment, including from the US and EU. But Lukashenko took the risk because he sees Protasevich — and other journalists and dissidents — as even more of a risk to his political fortunes.

“It’s an absolute existential determination to stay in power at all costs,” Denber said. “I think the degree of this crackdown only reflects the degree that he feels threatened.”

And that desperation means Lukashenko sees enemies everywhere, not just in Belarus.

Lukashenko’s transnational repression is a troubling example of global authoritarianism

The Ryanair incident exists on a scale far above what happened to the Olympian, Tsimanouskaya, and the efforts to wrangle her home after she spoke out against her coaches. But it represented, as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said this week, “another act of transnational repression.”

The Lukashenka regime sought to commit another act of transnational repression: attempting to force Olympian Krystsyna Tsimanouskaya to leave simply for exercising free speech. Such actions violate the Olympic spirit, are an affront to basic rights, and cannot be tolerated.

— Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken) August 3, 2021

Transnational repression — an authoritarian campaign against dissent that is essentially borderless — is a consequence of our more globalized world. Dissidents can more easily cross borders, but so too can the powers and abuses of the state. Technology, of course, facilitates this, both in how activists communicate abroad and the tools authoritarians can use to surveil or intimidate those they perceive as threats outside a country.

“It’s very difficult for [exiles] to disappear or become invisible to the regime because of that technology,” said Nate Schenkkan, director of research strategy at Freedom House.

Authoritarians use tools of digital repression, like online harassment or spyware, something Iran has reportedly done. They can threaten families at home — and make those threats publicly known. They can manipulate legal structure, like the use of Interpol red notices, a tactic that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has used. Or they can engage in illegal renditions and kidnapping, assassination, murder.

The Saudi murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul remains perhaps the most chilling example of what this kind of transnational repression can look like.

In lots of ways, transnational repression is kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy. A leader like Lukashenko faces massive popular resistance at home, which he sees as a threat to his rule. He cracks down. People flee. Those people continue to speak out. The threat, in a leader desperate to hold power, amplifies.

Some experts and journalists told me that while Lukashenko fits this mold, his ambitions and audacity may be a tad greater than his actual powers. The Ryanair incident, as astonishing as it was, did happen over Belarusian airspace He isn’t Putin, allegedly ordering the poisoning of ex-spies on a London bench. “Your Belarus KGB is not the same as the [Russian] FSB. The resources are not parallel,” Margolin, of Open Society, said.

“But,” she added, “I think he’s definitely trying to send a message that you’re not safe anymore.” This is especially true in the countries closer to Belarus, particularly in Ukraine, Lithuania, and Poland, where many exiles have fled and which have significant Belarusian expat communities.

Recently, 26-year-old Belarusian dissident Vitaly Shishov, who ran an opposition organization from Ukraine, was found hanged in a Ukrainian park after going missing after a run. His supporters have blamed Lukashenko for staging his suicide, and though there’s no evidence yet on the actual cause of death or whether the regime is involved. Still, it speaks to the very palpable fears within the Belarusian community. The mysterious death compounds what observers do know: that Lukashenko will divert a plane, will threaten an Olympian, will jail hundreds of people.

“The regime is, at this point, just really dead set on crossing every red line that exists and really trying the Western world with its actions,” Margolin said.

Belarusian journalists and activists feel it, too. I asked Satsunkevich if she felt safe doing her human rights work abroad. “It’s an interesting question because we see the arrest of Roman Protasevich, and this death of Vitaly Shishov in Ukraine, and nobody knows what it really was,” Satsunkevich said.

She and her colleagues have certain protocols they follow, just in case, to help protect themselves. “I feel safe,” she said, “but I try to be attentive and not to forget the danger.”

Liubakova, the journalist, is no longer in Belarus, but she said she knows that her work is always risky. There are threats on social media. There is fear of possible surveillance. “You kind of always keep in mind that somebody might be watching you, somebody might be observing you,” she said. “This is not paranoid. This is not about paranoia. Myself and my friends are being vigilant, understanding that everything is possible at any moment.”

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